NJ-Gov: Returns Preview

UPDATE: After work turnout being reported as moderate at voting sites throughout Ocean and Monmouth counties, continues to be light in Essex County. Middlesex and Bergen counties seem to be having high turnout, and they are both swing counties! All coming from actual voters in New Jersey or reliable sources. Everyone is expecting a very tight race. If you have reports of today's election turnout, or any other issues dealing with this election, tweet it to us at @BlueStateGOPer (twitter.com/bluestategoper)

The election tonight in New Jersey should be extremely close, and I fully expect it to be decided by a within 5 point margin. I will also say it's impossible to assume the amount of votes Chris Daggett will get tonight, but it could be anywhere between 6 and 14 percent. Anything outside of that range would seriously tilt this election, and the lower for Daggett, the better for Christie.

I will breakdown this election in terms of the important counties and factors, and will constantly update everyone on the state of the race as the night progresses.

Turnout will decide this election. Christie needs voters angered about their property tax bills and the decadence of the state to show up in his base counties, such as Monmouth and Ocean. He also will need to hold off these voters from Chris Daggett, who can tilt this election to Corzine if he siphons enough socially liberal Republican votes from Christie in these GOP leaning counties. Daggett's potential importance in this race mainly comes from these areas, not the heavily Democratic cities such as Paterson, Newark, and Camden. This race had, and still has, a lot of parallels to the 1993 and 1997 gubernatorial elections in NJ, but Chris Daggett's candidacy is what has made it so different. The central issue, sadly remain the same though, New Jersey's horrific property taxes.


Bergen County :This is the single most important county to watch when the returns come in. The Democrats have carried this county in federal elections throughout the decade, but the GOP has managed to eke out 45 percent plus in all three of this decade's presidential races. Bergen has a highly Republican north, and a heavily Democratic south, so turnout is the name of the game in Bergen County. No Republican has ever won a statewide race without carrying Bergen County, and that will not change tonight. Chris Christie must win in Bergen County, as in 1997's nail bitter, Christie Todd Whitman managed to win the county by 11 points. If Bergen comes in as a Corzine county tonight, I will probably call this race for him. Keep your eyes on Bergen tonight! Since this is the bellwether county in New Jersey, I'm not going to make any predictions, it may be very close in Bergen County this evening. As a final note, Bergen is also the largest county in the state, and is the home county of Dem LTG candidate Loretta Weinberg of Teaneck.


Monmouth County :This happens to be a heavily Republican county, and Christie Todd Whitman carried it by 17 points in the 1997 race. The main two things to watch in this county are Christie's victory margin and the number of votes Chris Daggett receives. If Christie wins by a 15 plus point margin, that means his ground game today was very viable, and that rings even more true if turnout is high in Monmouth County. Additionally, this is a great county to look at for the result Chris Daggett is going to have on this race. If Daggett manages to get a large number of votes here, that can be the disaster scenario for Chris Christie. Christie needs to get large margins in places like Monmouth, and if Daggett robs him of that, he is doomed. Monmouth is quite an affluent county, where voters tend to be conservative, especially on law and order issues. It shares a lot of similarities politically with New York City's conservative bastion, Staten Island, especially considering that many of its voters moved into the county from Staten Island. In addition, property taxes in this county are among the highest in the state.

More coming as the night progresses!