FL-Sen: Rubio Momentum, Rothstein Effect

Florida's race for the Senate seat currently held by Sen. George LeMieux is becoming the most interesting race in the country, and it's only getting more interesting as the days go on. Just this week alone, the Club for Growth entered the race by endorsing Marco Rubio, and once prominent Crist fundraiser Scott Rothstein's ponzi scheme was uncovered. In addition, Gov. Crist seems to be doing everything possible to undo his "Obama hug" earlier in the year at an event in Fort Myers. The events of this past week have ensured that Marco Rubio will have the dollars to establish himself as a statewide candidate, and that Charlie Crist has some major questions to answer. Overall, this week has definitely been Rubio's thus far, but it still is Crist's race to lose.

The biggest problem this week, thus far, for Charlie Crist has been the revelation of Fort Lauderdale attorney Scott Rothstein's business dealings. Rothstein has been a prominent fundraiser for Charlie Crist and the RPOF, donating hundreds of thousands of dollars to their causes. Rothstein, as we now know, was even invited to the swearing in ceremony of placeholder Sen. George LeMieux in September, which shows that this man was certainly quite involved in Republican politics in Florida. There is more, though, to this than that meets the eye. Many, including the notorious GOP strategist, Roger Stone, have said Rothstein had very little actual influence on the party, and on the Governor, and was simply seen as someone who could kick large amounts of dollars. Regardless, I can't help but to imagine a late summer or fall attack ad on Charlie Crist using this image:



The Governor certainly has had better days, and with his approval ratings dropping seemingly quick, this race could be getting much closer than we ever thought it would. Rubio has went from an afterthought to a very viable contender, and his team deserves an awful lot of credit for it. He has to be very careful, though, to maintain a degree of moderate appeal for the general election. He won't be able to win with a right wing only coalition in November. If the primary were held today, I'd project Charlie Crist would come out on top 60-40, and I expect the next batch of polls to point at this being a 10-15 point race. A recent poll from the Florida Chamber of Commerce had Crist up 50-35, and I'd have to imagine Rubio has made even more progress since then. We could see polls that have Rubio within 10 by December.

Floridians should stay tuned, because this is going to be one heck of a race.