Florida GOP Senate Primary, Sanford Fallout

As the day goes on, we are continuing to get more information and fallout from the scandal surrounding South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford, and we will continue to analyze the situation as more news comes out. Another issue facing our party I wish to address tonight, though, is the crucial GOP primary for the Senate seat being vacated by Mel Martinez in Florida. This primary is going to define the choices our party has to make in the future, and they are two candidates who both would make excellent senators. Many observers would tell you Gov. Crist is the front runner and definite winner in this race, but I see it as a party defining, nail bitter.

Governor Crist, who garners extremely high approval ratings, comes in to the race as the moderate, and a supporter of the Obama stimulus plan. Polls early on have shown him as a front runner, but they've also showed his opponent has growing support. Marco Rubio is the former Speaker of the Florida House, and is a charismatic, well spoken, young, and Hispanic who can guide this party's message in the future. Rubio is much more conservative than Crist, being endorsed by Mike Huckabee and advocating social and fiscal conservatism, and staunchly opposing the Obama presidency.

The polls show Rubio at 10 percent right now, but I expect and know this number will rise. As a moderate myself, I would not mind either, but Rubio seems like a tide of the future that Crist may not be able to overcome. Regardless out of this race's outcome, Marco Rubio has an extremely bright future in the Republican Party, and I think this race will be a very close one. Rubio will have a solid base in Miami Dade County, and I expect him to do well in Broward and Palm Beach County also. The governor will definitely have a strong base in the Tampa Bay area, but I think in a close race, the Orlando area could be up for grabs, and so could the Panhandle. Rubio's a conservative, and conservatism sells very well with the Republican base in Northern Florida. If Rubio can win by decent margins in South Florida, the Panhandle, and get 40 percent of the vote in the I-4 corridor, I think he stands a good chance to run a close race. Crist may have the money, but Rubio has the charisma, the youth, the conservatism, and Crist's pro stimulus stance may come to hurt him if the economy is still faltering on primary day.