FL-Sen: Rubio Momentum, Rothstein Effect

Florida's race for the Senate seat currently held by Sen. George LeMieux is becoming the most interesting race in the country, and it's only getting more interesting as the days go on. Just this week alone, the Club for Growth entered the race by endorsing Marco Rubio, and once prominent Crist fundraiser Scott Rothstein's ponzi scheme was uncovered. In addition, Gov. Crist seems to be doing everything possible to undo his "Obama hug" earlier in the year at an event in Fort Myers. The events of this past week have ensured that Marco Rubio will have the dollars to establish himself as a statewide candidate, and that Charlie Crist has some major questions to answer. Overall, this week has definitely been Rubio's thus far, but it still is Crist's race to lose.

The biggest problem this week, thus far, for Charlie Crist has been the revelation of Fort Lauderdale attorney Scott Rothstein's business dealings. Rothstein has been a prominent fundraiser for Charlie Crist and the RPOF, donating hundreds of thousands of dollars to their causes. Rothstein, as we now know, was even invited to the swearing in ceremony of placeholder Sen. George LeMieux in September, which shows that this man was certainly quite involved in Republican politics in Florida. There is more, though, to this than that meets the eye. Many, including the notorious GOP strategist, Roger Stone, have said Rothstein had very little actual influence on the party, and on the Governor, and was simply seen as someone who could kick large amounts of dollars. Regardless, I can't help but to imagine a late summer or fall attack ad on Charlie Crist using this image:



The Governor certainly has had better days, and with his approval ratings dropping seemingly quick, this race could be getting much closer than we ever thought it would. Rubio has went from an afterthought to a very viable contender, and his team deserves an awful lot of credit for it. He has to be very careful, though, to maintain a degree of moderate appeal for the general election. He won't be able to win with a right wing only coalition in November. If the primary were held today, I'd project Charlie Crist would come out on top 60-40, and I expect the next batch of polls to point at this being a 10-15 point race. A recent poll from the Florida Chamber of Commerce had Crist up 50-35, and I'd have to imagine Rubio has made even more progress since then. We could see polls that have Rubio within 10 by December.

Floridians should stay tuned, because this is going to be one heck of a race.

NJ-Gov: Returns Preview

UPDATE: After work turnout being reported as moderate at voting sites throughout Ocean and Monmouth counties, continues to be light in Essex County. Middlesex and Bergen counties seem to be having high turnout, and they are both swing counties! All coming from actual voters in New Jersey or reliable sources. Everyone is expecting a very tight race. If you have reports of today's election turnout, or any other issues dealing with this election, tweet it to us at @BlueStateGOPer (twitter.com/bluestategoper)

The election tonight in New Jersey should be extremely close, and I fully expect it to be decided by a within 5 point margin. I will also say it's impossible to assume the amount of votes Chris Daggett will get tonight, but it could be anywhere between 6 and 14 percent. Anything outside of that range would seriously tilt this election, and the lower for Daggett, the better for Christie.

I will breakdown this election in terms of the important counties and factors, and will constantly update everyone on the state of the race as the night progresses.

Turnout will decide this election. Christie needs voters angered about their property tax bills and the decadence of the state to show up in his base counties, such as Monmouth and Ocean. He also will need to hold off these voters from Chris Daggett, who can tilt this election to Corzine if he siphons enough socially liberal Republican votes from Christie in these GOP leaning counties. Daggett's potential importance in this race mainly comes from these areas, not the heavily Democratic cities such as Paterson, Newark, and Camden. This race had, and still has, a lot of parallels to the 1993 and 1997 gubernatorial elections in NJ, but Chris Daggett's candidacy is what has made it so different. The central issue, sadly remain the same though, New Jersey's horrific property taxes.


Bergen County :This is the single most important county to watch when the returns come in. The Democrats have carried this county in federal elections throughout the decade, but the GOP has managed to eke out 45 percent plus in all three of this decade's presidential races. Bergen has a highly Republican north, and a heavily Democratic south, so turnout is the name of the game in Bergen County. No Republican has ever won a statewide race without carrying Bergen County, and that will not change tonight. Chris Christie must win in Bergen County, as in 1997's nail bitter, Christie Todd Whitman managed to win the county by 11 points. If Bergen comes in as a Corzine county tonight, I will probably call this race for him. Keep your eyes on Bergen tonight! Since this is the bellwether county in New Jersey, I'm not going to make any predictions, it may be very close in Bergen County this evening. As a final note, Bergen is also the largest county in the state, and is the home county of Dem LTG candidate Loretta Weinberg of Teaneck.


Monmouth County :This happens to be a heavily Republican county, and Christie Todd Whitman carried it by 17 points in the 1997 race. The main two things to watch in this county are Christie's victory margin and the number of votes Chris Daggett receives. If Christie wins by a 15 plus point margin, that means his ground game today was very viable, and that rings even more true if turnout is high in Monmouth County. Additionally, this is a great county to look at for the result Chris Daggett is going to have on this race. If Daggett manages to get a large number of votes here, that can be the disaster scenario for Chris Christie. Christie needs to get large margins in places like Monmouth, and if Daggett robs him of that, he is doomed. Monmouth is quite an affluent county, where voters tend to be conservative, especially on law and order issues. It shares a lot of similarities politically with New York City's conservative bastion, Staten Island, especially considering that many of its voters moved into the county from Staten Island. In addition, property taxes in this county are among the highest in the state.

More coming as the night progresses!

A Changing Picture for the GOP

I don't know about you, but in my view the Republican Party has been having its best week since November of 2004. They are recruiting the candidates they want in Democratic strongholds such as Delaware, Illinois, and Hawaii in House and Senate races. In addition, polls are now showing Republicans ahead in the generic congressional ballot that Rasmussen does, and that voters trust Republicans more on economic issues than the Democrats. In addition, Barack Obama's approval rating is falling quicker than rain during a hurricane, especially in crucial swing states.

Unlike many other rightward leaning Republicans, I am not going to tell you I want Obama to fail, because I want America to prosper. Even with this, it is becoming painfully obvious that the policies Obama and the Democratic Congress are pursuing are not helping our painful economic situation. As the economy continues to falter, and with inflation more than likely down the road, the picture, for the first time, looks bleak for Democrats running anywhere, for any position. I still think the Republican Party is more fractured than it needs to be, and it needs to open its tent a bit wider, but for the first time in a while, the light is at the end of the tunnel.

If the GOP wants to continue this "hot streak", they are going to have continue having strong fund raising, and most importantly, recruiting strong candidates. In addition, they are going to have produce plausible alternatives to Obama policies. I promise you that if Eric Cantor comes out and supports a second stimulus in a public fashion, along with others in the party, the GOP will suffer, and will suffer strongly. They are now beginning to formulate a message, mainly based around fiscal responsibility, that can possibly give them big results in 2010 and 2012.

I know I discussed on the blog that I am looking to setup a feature where you can see the GOP candidates I have been touting and than sign up for their updates and donate to them. Please know that I am still working on it :)!

Thanks,

-Joe

Palin Analysis: Why Sarah?

Now that the "dust has settled" from the resignation of Sarah Palin as the Governor of Alaska, or at least I think, I'll be giving you my full analysis on the long term effects of Governor Palin's resignation.

When Palin first offered her resignation, I was in complete awe. The press conference seemed like it was an impromptu, poorly planned event, and in my earnest opinion, it was. We now know Palin spoke with no notes, and this could have only added a more awkward sense to an already very awkward press conference. As she finished her remarks, I couldn't help but to realize that with the amazing lack of detail in the speech, major questions would arise. They certainly did, as the pundits speculated everything from that she was under investigation to that her marriage was on the rocks. The speech, although very populist in nature, was not smart politics, but I don't think it was a lasting impression on the voter, either way. If Sarah Palin wants to be a presidential contender, and a viable one at that, she is going to have to start making some memorable speeches and moves that appeal to independents and conservative Democrats. As of right now, I feel she has been way too much of a polarizing figure for the conservative movement, when she needs to be a uniting one.

What makes this more of a shame is that at one point, Governor Palin seemed unstoppable. I am talking about before her national news cycle days, but about her days as a first term governor in Alaska with a 90 percent approval rating. She had bipartisan appeal, defied partisan policies, and was the ultimate uniting force in Alaska politics. She had a special gift, in my view, to be able to have approval ratings over 90 percent consistently. Even liberal pundits would agree in Alaska she got more done in 2 years than the previous 3 governors got done. The polarizing, ideological Sarah Palin is not going to sell well to the American people. What would sell and sell very well is the pre-McCain campaign Sarah Palin. That Sarah Palin, who possesses all of the fiery speaking skills, and charisma that she still has, would have the Democratic Party truly losing sleep.

Although Governor Palin's resignation puts her in a bad position to run for President in 2012, she's never been a textbook politician, and you should not expect her to be. She'll have the chance to sell herself on a constant basis to the American people, a chance she would not have had she continued serving as the Governor of Alaska. Her time as Governor is certainly lacking for a presidential candidate, but if Sarah Palin is able to tell the American people about what she accomplished in that short span, with bipartisan support, to all ends of viewpoints here in America, she will go very, very far. The roughest part for Sarah Palin is that this is going to require doing more than GOP fund raising and rallying conservatives, but rallying a nation. Phil Vangelakos, a GOP technology pioneer, put it perfectly on Twitter: Palin is the Michael Jackson of politics: extremely talented, but very bizarre. If Sarah Palin wants to be the President of these United States one day, that is going to have to end.

Video of the Palin Resignation

I give the speech a B+. The political move gets a D- from me. It hurts her for 2012, in my opinion, being that she hasn't built up the record and time that other nominees like Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty will have to sell in 2012. I think if the GOP is in the position to win in 2012, it's going to be because voters want someone with experience. They don't see and will not see Gov. Palin as having it. If she's planning to run for the Senate in 2010, I think she'd be seen as a carpetbagger, and with slipping poll numbers, she would lose to the up and coming Senator Lisa Murkowski.

All in all, a day full of questions. We'll have to see when the dust clears. Until then, we'll be keeping you posted.

-Joe

Governor Palin to Resign!

According to KTUU TV in Anchorage, Governor Sarah Palin will be resigning at the end of the month, handing over power to Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell.

From KTUU:

ANCHORAGE, Alaska -- Gov. Sarah Palin will resign her office in a few weeks, she said during a news conference at her Wasilla home Friday morning.

Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell will be inaugurated at the Governor's Picnic at Pionner Park in Fairbanks on Saturday, July 25, Palin said.

There was no immediate word as to why she will resign, though speculation has been rampant that the former vice presidential candidate is gearing up for a run at the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

Palin made the announcement flanked by Parnell and most, if not all, of her cabinet.

Parnell ran unsuccessfully against Rep. Don Young in the Republican primary last year.

The stunning announcement by Palin opens the floodgates for the 2010 gubernatorial race. Speculation that Palin might not seek re-election had fueled further conjecture of who might run.

This will surely be making the blog and the Internet active throughout the day. We'll be breaking the news as it comes.

The Senators who you need to call!

Undecided Senators that need to be contacted immediately to prevent the passage of cap and trade!

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) (202) 224-5623
Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) (202) 224-3004
Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL) (202) 224-2854
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) (202) 224-2523
Sen. Russell Feingold (D-WI) (202) 224-5323
Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) (202) 224-6342
Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) (202) 224-5824
Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) (202) 224-4843
Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) (202) 224-3041
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) (202) 224-6154
Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) (202) 224-6551
Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) (202) 224-2353
Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) (202) 224-5344
Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) (202) 224-2644

Our Movement and Who's Who

This blog was created to discuss the issues facing our party and nation, with folks from all areas of our party, but also to explore the races that will define our party as a whole, and the candidates who will define our party in the 21st century. I've spent countless hours scoping out and researching the people who hope to take that title, and will share the names who I feel will be making a big impact in the years to come. In the next few days, I'll be unveiling the Blue State Republican "All-Star Team", the candidates who I strongly feel will shape our party and bring it back into the spotlight.

These candidates include Marco Rubio, a young, charismatic 38 year old Floridian who previously served as speaker of the Florida House now running for the United States Senate. Marco is one of the most gifted speakers I've ever seen, and he's running an upstart, grassroots campaign against the well known Governor of Florida, Charlie Crist. I'm a fan of Charlie, but he's not the person who's going to bring people into our party like Marco will.

They also include Ryan Frazier, an Aurora city councilman looking to make a difference for less government and more freedom for Coloradans in the United States Senate. We also have Sarah Steelman, a charismatic conservative who's stood up for fiscal responsibility for Missourians, and will hopefully decide to run against the old Blunt establishment for Missouri's open Senate seat. We'll be introducing even more candidates and faces who are going to make an impact with your help over the course of this week, and we hope that you decide to volunteer or donate, and make a difference in the shape of our party and nation.

It's obvious that the Republican Party needs a rebirth, a new story, and a pragmatic one at that. We have millions of dedicated Americans who are currently forming a movement for fiscal responsibility and accountability in Washington, whether at tea parties or in their communities. Now it's time that we unite our movement and elect the candidates who represent our movement for responsibility and accountability. I hope you join me!

-Joe

Cap and Trade Senate Update, Rubio, Tea Parties

The infamous cap and trade bill will now be making its way onto the floor of the United States Senate, and it is up to us to call our Senators and stop this incomplete and inefficient piece of legislation from passing. Like in the U.S. House, numerous Republicans will possibly be voting for this piece of legislation. They include Senators McCain, Snowe, and Collins most likely, and possibly even more. I urge you to call their offices, and tell them to vote no on this current version of cap and trade.

Although America is in need of climate change reform, it can only be solved and be prosperous if the solution is market based, and does not make government more tyrannical than it already is. Why not legislation that encourages green businesses through tax cuts and less support to unions, who do anything but stimulate economic growth, and without killing the smokestack industries? America has some of the highest corporate tax rates in the world, and that needs to change immediately. After the battle on cap and trade and how to solve the crisis of climate change, we will have to again mobilize on saving America's health care industry, once again with market based solutions.

One of the candidates I'm supporting very strongly to help bring pragmatic, moderate, market based solutions to Washington is Florida's Marco Rubio. Marco's built up a really strong grassroots movement, and I hope more people join us in helping Marco get to the United States Senate. I wanted to post a terrific speech Marco gave to the Florida House. It will show why I'm so excited about Marco Rubio.



To finish up, I want to plug teapartyday.com. The grassroots movement is going to be crucial in bringing our party back, and the Tea Party movement is the collaboration between moderates and conservatives who all want fiscal responsibility in America.

-Joe

Another Florida Star, Cap and Trade firing up the base!

Hope everyone is enjoying their weekend! I wanted to blog today about another rising star in our party, once again out of South Florida. Allen West is a retired United States Army Colonel and a relatively young, and very likable guy, at least in my opinion. He's a Republican and he's running for Ron Klein's congressional seat in FL-22, which covers parts of Broward and Palm Beach counties. I happen to be a part time resident of this district, as I proudly live part time in Coral Springs, Florida (a fantastic community, and a fantastic place to live). Allen came close last time against Ron Klein, grabbing 45 percent of the vote in an unusually strong year for Democrats in Florida. With your help, we can get Allen into Congress, and hopefully, with a strong Senate candidate either way (Crist or Rubio), and Bill McCollum running for governor, we can also benefit from the coattails of what I feel will be a very strong ticket for Republicans in the Sunshine State.

To run down some of Allen's fantastic accomplishments:

From Wikipedia:

His awards and decorations include the Bronze Star, Meritorious Service Medal (two Oak Leaf Clusters), Army Commendation Medal (two Oak Leaf Clusters, one Valor Device), Army Achievement Medal (one Oak Leaf Cluster), Valorous Unit Award, Air Assault Badge and the Parachutist Badge.

In addition, West has been awarded the following service medals and ribbons: National Defense Service Medal (with bronze star device), Southwest Asia Service Medal , Army Service Ribbon, Army Overseas Service Ribbon (multiple awards), Saudi Arabia Kuwait Liberation Medal W/Palm Tree and Kuwait Liberation Medal

That is some serious dedication to one's country, and it certainly qualifies someone for Congress. In addition, he's served as a civilian adviser to the Afghan Army, and previously taught high school students. The GOP needs more moderate, mass appeal, and dedicated candidates like Allen West to run for Congress in 2010.



Also, cap and trade continues to rile up the conservative base of our party on the internet and at tea parties nationwide. Many of have targeted Mark Kirk of Illinois, but I warn them, it is better to have someone who votes with us 80 percent of the time than 0 percent of the time. Kirk represents a district that leans Democratic, and so do several of the other 7 who voted yes. Please, direct your efforts to the 200 plus Democrats who voted yes, many of whom represent swing, Republican leaning districts such as Rep. Michael McMahon of New York.

-Joe

Kirk Town Hall at Wilmette Village Hall Tomorrow

Tomorrow, Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) will be holding a town hall at the Wilmette Village Hall, as ttjemery as just alerted me on Twitter. For more details, I urge you to visit the website of the DuPage County Republican Party at dupagegop.com. Mark's going to be asked some serious questions on his "cap and trade" vote, and rightfully so. It will also be interesting to see the possible Senate candidate's viewpoint on the other issues facing our nation and the state of Illinois. I was solidly behind Kirk for the Senate seat in Illinois, but his 'yea' vote on the "cap and trade" bill has made me less sure. We've already endorsed Marco Rubio for the open Senate seat in Florida, and Ryan Frazier for Michael Bennet's seat in Colorado, and we'll definitely be tracking the race in Illinois.

Rep. Kirk needs to answer some serious questions, and as soon as we get some reports, and possibly video from the town hall, we'll be posting here on the blog immediately. I want to leave you some video, from all of places, the Young Turks, who reported on Kirk stating the nation was going nuts over tax increases. Then why vote for the biggest one ever, Rep. Kirk?

Cap and Trade Reaction, Weiner Strikes Again

The conservative world was up in arms with the passing of the "cap and trade" bill, and many of us spent most of the day on Twitter, rallying support and rallying callers to call their representatives and say no. Let me first say that they are some awfully dedicated people on our side, and the use of technology like Twitter to rally our cause really excites me. Many conservatives are deeply upset at the 8 Republicans who voted 'aye', including myself, but in being a more inclusive party, and building a bigger tent, this is bound to happen. This bill to me though was a no brainer 'nay' for anyone who considers themselves fiscally responsible, regardless of what party they represent. One article, though, that displayed Washington corruption and immaturity came once again came from the Politico.


After all the arms had been twisted, only two Democrats gave their leadership an unpleasant surprise at the end of the climate change vote -- and are firmly in Pelosi-Obama doghouse:

Texas Rep. Ciro Rodriguez and Rep. Alcee Hastings from Florida, according to House sources.

Rodriguez had told leadership that he was a likely yes -- but then cast a quick "no" vote and practically sprinted from the chamber, confounding floor managers who shouts of "Rodriguez!" rang through the House as the final anxious votes were cast.

At one point, New York Rep. Anthony Weiner bounced from a huddle of leadership members and began calling the wayward rep's name, like a wayward toddler, as he scanned the Speaker's lobby and the adjacent balcony.

"He cast his no and then ran the hell out of there," said a member of the whipping team, still steaming after the vote. "We tried him at his office and they said he was gone."

Hastings confounded Pelosi by choosing Thursday to depart for a human rights conference -- despite the pleas of the White House, who needed every vote they could muster to win the 219-212 squeaker.

A third member who has irked the powers-that-be: Rookie upstate New York Rep. Eric Massa (D-NY), who voted "no" despite a photo op with President Obama. Massa has also alienated many in Pelosi's team by introducing a House pay freeze jointly with Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wisc.).

My friends, as a New Yorker, who lived in Anthony Weiner's district, NY-9, I can tell you, with a good opponent, my friends, he is vulnerable. 44 percent of NY-9 voted McCain in 2008, and that is an all time high in the district for any Republican. It's time to end Anthony Weiner's dirty tricks and scumbag politics, and begin a movement that will take this man out of the halls of Congress. Our nation has no time for fools like Rep. Anthony Weiner. As the weeks go on, I'll be exposing Weiner further, and also introducing alternatives we can all rally around. It's time to rebuild our party across this great nation, and that includes the heart of New York City.

As more fallout continues, and I can tell you Obama must be a very happy man tonight, we will continue to blog.

Cap and Trade Passes, Analysis, Key Votes

The cap and trade bill has now officially passed in the US House, 219-212, with 44 Democrats joining our cause, and 8 Republican defectors. Although I will fall short of calling them RINOs or traitors, this bill is the single largest tax increase in American history. Today, I urged many of you to call your representative in Congress and the one's listed below and urge them to vote no. We'll be updating the blog to tell you which ones voted yes and which ones voted no. This blog will be constantly updated tonight with chatter on the bill, and news of its status in the Senate.

The "swing votes", and how they voted:

Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R-CA) (202) 225-5330 YES
Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ) (202) 225-6572 YES
Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ) (202)-225-3765 YES
Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA) (202) 225-7761 YES
Rep. Michael McMahon (D-NY) (202) 225-3371 YES
Rep. Tim Walz (D-MN) (202)-225-2472 YES
Rep. Eric Massa (D-NY) (202) 225-3161 NO
Rep. Solomon Ortiz (D-TX) (202) 225-7742 NO
Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL) (202) 225-3711 YES
Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) (202) 225-4636 NO
Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH) (202) 225-2015 YES
Rep. Tom Petri (R-WI) (202)-225-2476 NO

UPDATE:
Rep. Leonard Boswell (D-IA) (202) 225-3806 YES
Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-GA) (202) 225-3631 YES
Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN) (202)-225-4311 YES
Rep. Michael Arcuri (D-NY) (202) 225-3665 NO
Rep. John Boccieri (D-OH) (202) 225-3876 YES
Rep. Mark Kirk (D-IL) (202)-225-4835 YES
Rep. Allen Boyd (D-FL) (202) 225-5235 YES

UPDATE 2:

Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA) (202)-225-6636 NO
Rep. Zack Space (D-OH) (202) 225-6265 YES
Rep. Norm Dicks (D-WA) (202)-225-5916 YES
Rep. Chris Carney (D-PA) (202) 225-3731 NO

UPDATE 3:

Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY) (202)-225-4706 YES
Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX) (202)-225-4511 NO
Rep. Leonard Lance (R-NJ) (202) 225-5361 YES
Rep. Michael Castle (R-DE) (202).225.4165 YES
Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL) (202) 225-2901 NO
Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-MD) (202) 225-5311 YES
Rep. Nick Rahall (D-WV) (202) 225-3452 NO
Rep. Rush Holt (D-NJ) (202) 225-5801 YES

UPDATE 4:

Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-MI) (202) 225-3831 YES
Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) (202) 225-4315 NO
Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ) (202) 225-5034 NO
Rep. Jim Marshall (D-GA) (202) 225-6531 NO
Rep. Eddie Johnson (D-TX) (202) 225-8885 YES

UPDATE 5:

Rep. Harry Teague (D-NM) (202) 225-2365 YES

UPDATE 6:

Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ) (202) 225-2315 NO
Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI) (202)-225-5506 YES
Rep. Corrine Brown (D-FL) (202) 225-0123 YES
Rep. Paul Tonko (D-NY) (202) 225-5076 YES
Rep. Al Green (D-TX) (202) 225-7508 YES

Who you NEED to call to block cap and trade! UPDATED!

The following list of representatives needed to be called immediately, as they are swing votes on the infamous 'cap and trade' bill. Call them as soon as possible, and call them often. You don't need to live in their district in order to call and voice your opposition!

Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R-CA) (202) 225-5330
Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ) (202) 225-6572
Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ) (202)-225-3765
Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA) (202) 225-7761
Rep. Michael McMahon (D-NY) (202) 225-3371
Rep. Tim Walz (D-MN) (202)-225-2472
Rep. Eric Massa (D-NY) (202) 225-3161
Rep. Solomon Ortiz (D-TX) (202) 225-7742
Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL) (202) 225-3711
Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) (202) 225-4636
Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH) (202) 225-2015
Rep. Tom Petri (R-WI) (202)-225-2476

UPDATE:
Rep. Leonard Boswell (D-IA) (202) 225-3806
Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-GA) (202) 225-3631
Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN) (202)-225-4311
Rep. Michael Arcuri (D-NY) (202) 225-3665
Rep. John Boccieri (D-OH) (202) 225-3876
Rep. Mark Kirk (D-IL) (202)-225-4835
Rep. Allen Boyd (D-FL) (202) 225-5235

UPDATE 2:

Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA) (202)-225-6636
Rep. Zack Space (D-OH) (202) 225-6265
Rep. Norm Dicks (D-WA) (202)-225-5916
Rep. Chris Carney (D-PA) (202) 225-3731

UPDATE 3:

Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY) (202)-225-4706
Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX) (202)-225-4511
Rep. Leonard Lance (R-NJ) (202) 225-5361
Rep. Michael Castle (R-DE) (202).225.4165
Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL) (202) 225-2901
Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-MD) (202) 225-5311
Rep. Nick Rahall (D-WV) (202) 225-3452
Rep. Rush Holt (D-NJ) (202) 225-5801

UPDATE 4:

Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-MI) (202) 225-3831
Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) (202) 225-4315
Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ) (202) 225-5034
Rep. Jim Marshall (D-GA) (202) 225-6531
Rep. Eddie Johnson (D-TX) (202) 225-8885

UPDATE 5:

Rep. Harry Teague (D-NM) (202) 225-2365

UPDATE 6:

Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ) (202) 225-2315
Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI) (202)-225-5506
Rep. Corrine Brown (D-FL) (202) 225-0123
Rep. Paul Tonko (D-NY) (202) 225-5076
Rep. Al Green (D-TX) (202) 225-7508



Number to the Blue Dog Democrat Coalition: (202) 543-5777







WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPDATED AS NEWS COMES ACROSS!

Cap and Trade, Contact your Representative!

Today is the day of the big vote that will play a big role, or better yet, a huge role in the future of American energy and climate policy. "Cap and trade"'s been a well known bill around political circles, and today is the day that it will become known in households across America (If not today, due to the mourning of the death of Michael Jackson, very soon). Even as someone who supports the green movement, and the need to address the issue of climate change, I cannot support the bill, and I urge you to contact your local congressional representative and urge them to vote no. This bill promises to put extremely high costs on the shoulders of farm state citizens and businesses, and it will result in the loss of jobs as a result. The way "cap and trade" works is that the federal government will set a standard for how much carbon can be emitted, and then companies can buy and sell permits to emit carbon. In the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) analysis of the bill in 2020, it will cost an American company $28 to emit a ton of carbon. How are we expecting to get America back on board to compete with foreign companies with this type of nonsense going on? This bill also threatens to take a $161 billion hit on GDP according to an analysis done by the Heritage Foundation. Once again, we're seeing politicians like Henry Waxman promising short term fixes so rural Democrats hop on in exchange for more pain later.

From the Politico:

The final 1,201-page bill includes compromises for Michigan auto interests, Rust Belt manufacturers, Texas oil refineries, Midwestern farmers and Southeastern coal companies.

In the same article, Earl Pomeroy (D), the at large representative from North Dakota, had this to add about the bill:

“I’m here to represent North Dakota, and we only have one guy: me,” the senior Ways and Means Committee member said. “I know how badly the speaker wants this bill, but I have a job to do. On this one, I don’t feel any pressure at all.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/24232.html#ixzz0JYMFZCR8&C

Charles Calomiris, a Columbia professor of financial institutions, had this to add in the Politico's arena:

As economists Terry Anderson and Gary Libecap have shown in their incisive, factual, and balanced analysis, this bill will do significant harm to the economy and accomplish little that is worthwhile in the process. To quote those authors (): "Our major points are (1) that the administration has not been candid with the American public about the costs of these initiatives or about the likelihood of their ability to improve the environment; (2) that these initiatives are likely to encourage protectionism, reduce international trade, and hence slow the recovery of the U.S. and world economies; and (3) that slower growth will undermine environmental improvements at home and abroad." Reduce...

So today, I urge all of you, liberal or conservative, Democrat of Republican, to not let this bill pass by getting in touch with your congressional office, and to speak about on the effects this bill's passage would have.

-Joe

GOP Primary News, New Frazier Ad, Sanford Fallout

As even more news is coming out about Mark Sanford, I think it is only appropriate that this governor resign from his office for the sake of his family, and his state. News has come out today that he had a 10 day tryst planned, and that he has visited Argentina previously on the cover of a trade summit. Completely inappropriate behavior, lowly, and embarrassing for the people of South Carolina. Our prayers are with the Sanford Family.

In other GOP news, Colorado US Senate candidate, Ryan Frazier, who is running in the Republican primary, has released a new video ad, and I think it is excellent. He's a 31 year old Aurora city councilman who has all the qualities I named about Marco Rubio last night, young, charismatic, likeable, and he's also African American. He's up for a challenging primary with Bob Beauprez in the mix, a former gubernatorial candidate, but he stands a real chance.



Ryan Frazier gets my endorsement for the Colorado Senate race, and I think he's one of the rising stars in this party.

Also, in my home state of New York, Rick Lazio will be running for Governor, which will be up for grabs in 2010. He'll be potentially be in a crowded Republican primary, that may include Rudy Giuliani. Lazio's a decent moderate, and a former congressman who could have a solid Long Island base, and I personally really liked the statement I found from him on the Moderate Voice today.

“As long as New York Republicans are identified with southern fundamental conservatism, we’re going to struggle because it’s going to be very hard to break through and to talk to people who are new immigrants and the different demographic groups that we traditionally haven’t won,” Lazio said.

“So, I think the northeast’s Republicans need to get back to a heritage where they had that kind of relationship and they need to be able to talk about issues, and I don’t mean just individual candidates running.”

“You need to have support at the higher levels. You need to have the sort of aircover that there are people who got ideas that mean something, that are relevant to people that are from different ethnic backgrounds. We just have not done as good a job as we need to. We’ve done a poor job as a matter of fact, if truth be told, in that.”

From today's The Moderate Voice, a statement by Rick Lazio.

With the State Senate stinking it up in Albany, and a highly unpopular Democratic governor, along with a possible rough primary between Kirsten Gillibrand and Carolyn Maloney and/or Carolyn McCarthy, crazier things have happened than the possibility of Lazio running a competitive race.

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Florida GOP Senate Primary, Sanford Fallout

As the day goes on, we are continuing to get more information and fallout from the scandal surrounding South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford, and we will continue to analyze the situation as more news comes out. Another issue facing our party I wish to address tonight, though, is the crucial GOP primary for the Senate seat being vacated by Mel Martinez in Florida. This primary is going to define the choices our party has to make in the future, and they are two candidates who both would make excellent senators. Many observers would tell you Gov. Crist is the front runner and definite winner in this race, but I see it as a party defining, nail bitter.

Governor Crist, who garners extremely high approval ratings, comes in to the race as the moderate, and a supporter of the Obama stimulus plan. Polls early on have shown him as a front runner, but they've also showed his opponent has growing support. Marco Rubio is the former Speaker of the Florida House, and is a charismatic, well spoken, young, and Hispanic who can guide this party's message in the future. Rubio is much more conservative than Crist, being endorsed by Mike Huckabee and advocating social and fiscal conservatism, and staunchly opposing the Obama presidency.

The polls show Rubio at 10 percent right now, but I expect and know this number will rise. As a moderate myself, I would not mind either, but Rubio seems like a tide of the future that Crist may not be able to overcome. Regardless out of this race's outcome, Marco Rubio has an extremely bright future in the Republican Party, and I think this race will be a very close one. Rubio will have a solid base in Miami Dade County, and I expect him to do well in Broward and Palm Beach County also. The governor will definitely have a strong base in the Tampa Bay area, but I think in a close race, the Orlando area could be up for grabs, and so could the Panhandle. Rubio's a conservative, and conservatism sells very well with the Republican base in Northern Florida. If Rubio can win by decent margins in South Florida, the Panhandle, and get 40 percent of the vote in the I-4 corridor, I think he stands a good chance to run a close race. Crist may have the money, but Rubio has the charisma, the youth, the conservatism, and Crist's pro stimulus stance may come to hurt him if the economy is still faltering on primary day.

Gov. Sanford admits affair, possible impacts

Today in South Carolina's capital of Columbia, news came out of a press conference held by Governor Mark Sanford that the governor has been embroiled in an extramarital affair for over a year. Not only is this news thoroughly shocking and appalling, but it also begs the question, how will this affect the state of the Republican Party in South Carolina, and the national picture for the Republican Primary in 2012.

Up until now, Sanford has been a semi-presidential candidate, appearing on the cable circuit for months, and making plenty of headlines for attempting to reject $700,000,000 in federal stimulus money. This attempt resulted in Sanford being overridden by the Republican dominated state houses and the state's courts, and it also dipped his approval ratings into the mid 30s. Even with this, Sanford's built a reputation as a governor deeply bound to principle, and dedicated to eliminating pork barrel waste and wasteful government spending in his state. With the threat of inflation forever increasing in 2012, and poll numbers showing increasing opposition to the Obama spending plans, Sanford seemed to be building a formidable, maverick candidacy for President in 2012.

Now, this is all gone. I'd hope Gov. Sanford is able to reconcile with his wife and family, and move on from this horrific scandal, but it would appropriate for the governor to resign at this point. Republicans dominate in South Carolina, as they hold seven out of the eight statewide positions. Even with this, there has been formidable disunity amongst the party in the state this year. The Governor has feuded with his fellow party over stimulus money and the state's budget, and in the past, he's even brought live pigs to the Capitol in protest of 'pork barrel' spending. One must ask how contradicting Republican voices, and noise in the peanut gallery (State Sen. Jake Knotts, and many other Republican state house politicians are frequent critics) will affect the party's chances in the 2010 gubernatorial election. Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who's also been a Sanford critic, is, in my opinion, not the front runner right now, as everyone from the attorney general to numerous congressmen are looking to run. This is still a winnable state for Democrats. Barack Obama garnered 44 percent of the vote here, the state has a sizable African American population, and Gov. Sanford ran close races against Democratic opposition in 2002 and 2006. I think a conservative Democrat with appeal to some of the state's usually Republican voters could have a real chance in this race in 2010, even in South Carolina.

Finally, one must also ask, how in the world could Sanford think to do this, and not expect to be caught? He has not only done fatal damage to his family, but to his political career, and he's also further associated the Republican brand with scandals such as the Ensign affair. This type of behavior is nothing strong of horrendous and condemable, and it is a truly dissapointing day for South Carolinians, the Sanford family, and our party.