Charlie Crist's Greatest Hits: Vol. 1

Here it is: The first volume of the Charlie Crist Greatest Hits collection! In this volume, we get a taste of the "conservative" Florida Governor, who avidly backs figures such as Governor Sarah Palin. This, my friends,is a career politician we cannot trust.



Here's Governor Crist on offshore drilling:



Here's the Governor praising George W. Bush:



Don't worry, we have even more video of flip flopping Charlie Crist coming soon.

DISCLAIMER: We do not own any of the videos linked in this blog post, nor did we produce them.

FL-Sen: Rubio Momentum, Rothstein Effect

Florida's race for the Senate seat currently held by Sen. George LeMieux is becoming the most interesting race in the country, and it's only getting more interesting as the days go on. Just this week alone, the Club for Growth entered the race by endorsing Marco Rubio, and once prominent Crist fundraiser Scott Rothstein's ponzi scheme was uncovered. In addition, Gov. Crist seems to be doing everything possible to undo his "Obama hug" earlier in the year at an event in Fort Myers. The events of this past week have ensured that Marco Rubio will have the dollars to establish himself as a statewide candidate, and that Charlie Crist has some major questions to answer. Overall, this week has definitely been Rubio's thus far, but it still is Crist's race to lose.

The biggest problem this week, thus far, for Charlie Crist has been the revelation of Fort Lauderdale attorney Scott Rothstein's business dealings. Rothstein has been a prominent fundraiser for Charlie Crist and the RPOF, donating hundreds of thousands of dollars to their causes. Rothstein, as we now know, was even invited to the swearing in ceremony of placeholder Sen. George LeMieux in September, which shows that this man was certainly quite involved in Republican politics in Florida. There is more, though, to this than that meets the eye. Many, including the notorious GOP strategist, Roger Stone, have said Rothstein had very little actual influence on the party, and on the Governor, and was simply seen as someone who could kick large amounts of dollars. Regardless, I can't help but to imagine a late summer or fall attack ad on Charlie Crist using this image:



The Governor certainly has had better days, and with his approval ratings dropping seemingly quick, this race could be getting much closer than we ever thought it would. Rubio has went from an afterthought to a very viable contender, and his team deserves an awful lot of credit for it. He has to be very careful, though, to maintain a degree of moderate appeal for the general election. He won't be able to win with a right wing only coalition in November. If the primary were held today, I'd project Charlie Crist would come out on top 60-40, and I expect the next batch of polls to point at this being a 10-15 point race. A recent poll from the Florida Chamber of Commerce had Crist up 50-35, and I'd have to imagine Rubio has made even more progress since then. We could see polls that have Rubio within 10 by December.

Floridians should stay tuned, because this is going to be one heck of a race.

NJ-Gov: Returns Preview

UPDATE: After work turnout being reported as moderate at voting sites throughout Ocean and Monmouth counties, continues to be light in Essex County. Middlesex and Bergen counties seem to be having high turnout, and they are both swing counties! All coming from actual voters in New Jersey or reliable sources. Everyone is expecting a very tight race. If you have reports of today's election turnout, or any other issues dealing with this election, tweet it to us at @BlueStateGOPer (twitter.com/bluestategoper)

The election tonight in New Jersey should be extremely close, and I fully expect it to be decided by a within 5 point margin. I will also say it's impossible to assume the amount of votes Chris Daggett will get tonight, but it could be anywhere between 6 and 14 percent. Anything outside of that range would seriously tilt this election, and the lower for Daggett, the better for Christie.

I will breakdown this election in terms of the important counties and factors, and will constantly update everyone on the state of the race as the night progresses.

Turnout will decide this election. Christie needs voters angered about their property tax bills and the decadence of the state to show up in his base counties, such as Monmouth and Ocean. He also will need to hold off these voters from Chris Daggett, who can tilt this election to Corzine if he siphons enough socially liberal Republican votes from Christie in these GOP leaning counties. Daggett's potential importance in this race mainly comes from these areas, not the heavily Democratic cities such as Paterson, Newark, and Camden. This race had, and still has, a lot of parallels to the 1993 and 1997 gubernatorial elections in NJ, but Chris Daggett's candidacy is what has made it so different. The central issue, sadly remain the same though, New Jersey's horrific property taxes.


Bergen County :This is the single most important county to watch when the returns come in. The Democrats have carried this county in federal elections throughout the decade, but the GOP has managed to eke out 45 percent plus in all three of this decade's presidential races. Bergen has a highly Republican north, and a heavily Democratic south, so turnout is the name of the game in Bergen County. No Republican has ever won a statewide race without carrying Bergen County, and that will not change tonight. Chris Christie must win in Bergen County, as in 1997's nail bitter, Christie Todd Whitman managed to win the county by 11 points. If Bergen comes in as a Corzine county tonight, I will probably call this race for him. Keep your eyes on Bergen tonight! Since this is the bellwether county in New Jersey, I'm not going to make any predictions, it may be very close in Bergen County this evening. As a final note, Bergen is also the largest county in the state, and is the home county of Dem LTG candidate Loretta Weinberg of Teaneck.


Monmouth County :This happens to be a heavily Republican county, and Christie Todd Whitman carried it by 17 points in the 1997 race. The main two things to watch in this county are Christie's victory margin and the number of votes Chris Daggett receives. If Christie wins by a 15 plus point margin, that means his ground game today was very viable, and that rings even more true if turnout is high in Monmouth County. Additionally, this is a great county to look at for the result Chris Daggett is going to have on this race. If Daggett manages to get a large number of votes here, that can be the disaster scenario for Chris Christie. Christie needs to get large margins in places like Monmouth, and if Daggett robs him of that, he is doomed. Monmouth is quite an affluent county, where voters tend to be conservative, especially on law and order issues. It shares a lot of similarities politically with New York City's conservative bastion, Staten Island, especially considering that many of its voters moved into the county from Staten Island. In addition, property taxes in this county are among the highest in the state.

More coming as the night progresses!

A Changing Picture for the GOP

I don't know about you, but in my view the Republican Party has been having its best week since November of 2004. They are recruiting the candidates they want in Democratic strongholds such as Delaware, Illinois, and Hawaii in House and Senate races. In addition, polls are now showing Republicans ahead in the generic congressional ballot that Rasmussen does, and that voters trust Republicans more on economic issues than the Democrats. In addition, Barack Obama's approval rating is falling quicker than rain during a hurricane, especially in crucial swing states.

Unlike many other rightward leaning Republicans, I am not going to tell you I want Obama to fail, because I want America to prosper. Even with this, it is becoming painfully obvious that the policies Obama and the Democratic Congress are pursuing are not helping our painful economic situation. As the economy continues to falter, and with inflation more than likely down the road, the picture, for the first time, looks bleak for Democrats running anywhere, for any position. I still think the Republican Party is more fractured than it needs to be, and it needs to open its tent a bit wider, but for the first time in a while, the light is at the end of the tunnel.

If the GOP wants to continue this "hot streak", they are going to have continue having strong fund raising, and most importantly, recruiting strong candidates. In addition, they are going to have produce plausible alternatives to Obama policies. I promise you that if Eric Cantor comes out and supports a second stimulus in a public fashion, along with others in the party, the GOP will suffer, and will suffer strongly. They are now beginning to formulate a message, mainly based around fiscal responsibility, that can possibly give them big results in 2010 and 2012.

I know I discussed on the blog that I am looking to setup a feature where you can see the GOP candidates I have been touting and than sign up for their updates and donate to them. Please know that I am still working on it :)!

Thanks,

-Joe

Palin Analysis: Why Sarah?

Now that the "dust has settled" from the resignation of Sarah Palin as the Governor of Alaska, or at least I think, I'll be giving you my full analysis on the long term effects of Governor Palin's resignation.

When Palin first offered her resignation, I was in complete awe. The press conference seemed like it was an impromptu, poorly planned event, and in my earnest opinion, it was. We now know Palin spoke with no notes, and this could have only added a more awkward sense to an already very awkward press conference. As she finished her remarks, I couldn't help but to realize that with the amazing lack of detail in the speech, major questions would arise. They certainly did, as the pundits speculated everything from that she was under investigation to that her marriage was on the rocks. The speech, although very populist in nature, was not smart politics, but I don't think it was a lasting impression on the voter, either way. If Sarah Palin wants to be a presidential contender, and a viable one at that, she is going to have to start making some memorable speeches and moves that appeal to independents and conservative Democrats. As of right now, I feel she has been way too much of a polarizing figure for the conservative movement, when she needs to be a uniting one.

What makes this more of a shame is that at one point, Governor Palin seemed unstoppable. I am talking about before her national news cycle days, but about her days as a first term governor in Alaska with a 90 percent approval rating. She had bipartisan appeal, defied partisan policies, and was the ultimate uniting force in Alaska politics. She had a special gift, in my view, to be able to have approval ratings over 90 percent consistently. Even liberal pundits would agree in Alaska she got more done in 2 years than the previous 3 governors got done. The polarizing, ideological Sarah Palin is not going to sell well to the American people. What would sell and sell very well is the pre-McCain campaign Sarah Palin. That Sarah Palin, who possesses all of the fiery speaking skills, and charisma that she still has, would have the Democratic Party truly losing sleep.

Although Governor Palin's resignation puts her in a bad position to run for President in 2012, she's never been a textbook politician, and you should not expect her to be. She'll have the chance to sell herself on a constant basis to the American people, a chance she would not have had she continued serving as the Governor of Alaska. Her time as Governor is certainly lacking for a presidential candidate, but if Sarah Palin is able to tell the American people about what she accomplished in that short span, with bipartisan support, to all ends of viewpoints here in America, she will go very, very far. The roughest part for Sarah Palin is that this is going to require doing more than GOP fund raising and rallying conservatives, but rallying a nation. Phil Vangelakos, a GOP technology pioneer, put it perfectly on Twitter: Palin is the Michael Jackson of politics: extremely talented, but very bizarre. If Sarah Palin wants to be the President of these United States one day, that is going to have to end.

Video of the Palin Resignation

I give the speech a B+. The political move gets a D- from me. It hurts her for 2012, in my opinion, being that she hasn't built up the record and time that other nominees like Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty will have to sell in 2012. I think if the GOP is in the position to win in 2012, it's going to be because voters want someone with experience. They don't see and will not see Gov. Palin as having it. If she's planning to run for the Senate in 2010, I think she'd be seen as a carpetbagger, and with slipping poll numbers, she would lose to the up and coming Senator Lisa Murkowski.

All in all, a day full of questions. We'll have to see when the dust clears. Until then, we'll be keeping you posted.

-Joe

Governor Palin to Resign!

According to KTUU TV in Anchorage, Governor Sarah Palin will be resigning at the end of the month, handing over power to Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell.

From KTUU:

ANCHORAGE, Alaska -- Gov. Sarah Palin will resign her office in a few weeks, she said during a news conference at her Wasilla home Friday morning.

Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell will be inaugurated at the Governor's Picnic at Pionner Park in Fairbanks on Saturday, July 25, Palin said.

There was no immediate word as to why she will resign, though speculation has been rampant that the former vice presidential candidate is gearing up for a run at the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

Palin made the announcement flanked by Parnell and most, if not all, of her cabinet.

Parnell ran unsuccessfully against Rep. Don Young in the Republican primary last year.

The stunning announcement by Palin opens the floodgates for the 2010 gubernatorial race. Speculation that Palin might not seek re-election had fueled further conjecture of who might run.

This will surely be making the blog and the Internet active throughout the day. We'll be breaking the news as it comes.